By the end of the 21st century the climate of Bulgaria will change drastically. According to experts, levels of drought and warming will increase substantially by the end of the century. This supposition is based on information from the Chambers of Accounts, which conducted an audit of the execution of adaptation measurements of the government in connection with climate changes in the country during the period of January 1st 2008 to December 31st 2012. These measurements took place in several different ministries, such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Internal Affairs and Ministry of Environment and Water.
The prognoses for climate changes in Bulgaria over the next 100 years are as follows:
- More snowless and unusually warm winters and a decrease in the number of days with maximum low temperatures.
- The number of summer days will increase by 18-20% in the plains of Southern Bulgaria and the number of hot days will increase by 30% by the end of the century.
- Average monthly temperature will rise by 2 to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century.
Overall, the statistical data regarding global climate change shows that the increase in annual average air temperatures during the 20th century is the highest in the last 1,000 years and 10 of the last 15 years are amongst the hottest years of the past 160 years.
The prognosis for the year 2100 warns that climate change will have a negative effect not only on Bulgaria, but also on Europe as a whole. Specialists are expecting average temperatures in Europe to increase by 2 to 6.3 degrees Celsius in comparison to 1990. Sea levels will increase, there will be a greater danger of tidal waves, and natural disasters and forest fires will occur more frequently. There will also be a greater chance for drought, and increases in tourism issues as well as extinctions of certain animals and plants. These forecasted negative outcomes of climate change are a wake-up call for all countries in Europe. They must work together in order to take drastic measures in limiting the most harmful outcomes of climate change and adapting to these outcomes.
Since 1970, the climate in Bulgaria has gotten warmer with a slight increase in extreme climatic and meteorological occurrences. The thickness of the snow cover has lessened and broad-leaved forests are moving to a higher altitude. In addition, there has been a tendency of increased water insufficiency in the soil. The annual average temperature in 2011 is above the climatic rate by 1.2 degrees Celsius. 2013 is the 12th consecutive year with temperatures higher than the country’s average. These figures are troubling.
In conclusion, based on these worrying statistics, it is of the utmost importance for the authorities in Bulgaria to take the necessary actions to adapt to climate change before it’s too late. We know that we don’t stand a chance against Mother Nature, but modern weather technologies give us an opportunity to know what to expect in future. We must take advantage of that and be prepared.
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