New Delhi – Key sectors of India’s emerging economy are under threat from the effects of climate change even as the country struggles to uplift millions from poverty.
Those were the results of a report that is bound to prompt officials to review policies over the next two decades, and came just before India and other countries gathered for a two-week United Nations climate summit in Cancun, Mexico. The report made specific climate-related forecasts for the 2030s for India, rating it among the countries most vulnerable to global warming. Within 20 years, global warming could render India two degrees Celsius warmer than in 1970, changes that would disrupt rainfall patterns and impact the country’s fresh-water supplies and agriculture, the main source of livelihood for the country’s billion- plus population, the report said.
The study, Climate Change and India, takes stock of the impact of climate change on agriculture, water, health, and natural ecosystems and biodiversity in climate-sensitive regions in the country. More floods and droughts were likely as was the spread of malaria, according to the report prepared by the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), comprising 220 scientists from 120 research institutions. Against the backdrop of this report are projections by the US Census Bureau that say India is poised to surpass China and become the world’s most populous country by 2025, raising fresh concerns on key issues such as food security.
Environment expert Joydeep Gupta said there was good reason to be alarmed. The threats to key sectors of the economy were ‘serious.’ He noted a review found that adapting to climate change cost India 2.6 per cent of its economic output in 2007. ‘Clearly there’s a huge impact on the economy. As the economy matures, we won’t have this current high growth levels anyway, and that is when climate change is likely to impact India’s growth the most,’ he said. As ministers in Cancun attempt to reach a global pact to limit greenhouse gas emissions, the Indian government said this month it would make higher emission cuts than its commitment of reducing emissions by 20 to 25 per cent per unit of economic output.
‘No country in the world is as vulnerable, on so many dimensions, to climate change as India,’ Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said. ‘We are exposed to climate change on multiple fronts, rigorous assessments are therefore critical in designing our adaptation strategies.’ However, Ramesh has asserted that developing countries like India will not accept legally binding reduction targets that could hamper economic growth. But this has been a key demand of wealthy countries like the United States. Environment Ministry officials have said India’s emission intensity has dropped by 17.6 per cent between 1990 and 2005 and is already in the same range as that of the least energy intensive countries in the world.
Ramesh meanwhile said India would try and act as a ‘bridge’ to narrow differences between rich and developing nations on climate change, aiming to break the global stalemate at Cancun. India has already made a proposal regarding monitoring and verification of emission cuts at the conference that was welcomed as a positive step by environmentalists. Another proposal on sharing of environmentally friendly technologies with poor and developing countries was also suggested by Delhi. Gupta said the Indian government was doing a lot ‘on paper,’ announcing big plans to move to renewable energy, but there was little action on the ground amid frustration that wealthy countries have not held up their commitments.
‘Obviously there is frustration that other countries aren’t doing more, but for India’s own sake, it can’t afford to let that frustration hamper its own domestic plans to reduce emissions,’ he said. ‘So yes, as the third-largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world now, India is a country grappling with its own growing emissions as well as the effects of climate change. These effects are not looming – they’re here already.’ The report on climate change in India pointed to overall warming, particularly along the coasts, along with increased flooding and heightened drought in the Himalayan region that were likely to impact crop yields and effect livestock to reduce milk production.
All four regions considered – including the Himalayas, the Western Ghats, the coastal belts and the north-east region – were expected to see rainfall increases by five to 10 days compared with the 1970s. While rice yields in these regions were expected to rise marginally, other crops like maize and sorghum were expected to have reduced yields. While moderate to extreme drought was predicted in the Himalayan region, all other regions were likely to see floods increase by 10 to 30 per cent, which would hurt infrastructure such as dams, bridges and roads. By Siddhartha Kumar Source>>
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